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Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance, by Adair Turner
Free Download Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance, by Adair Turner
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Adair Turner became chairman of Britain's Financial Services Authority just as the global financial crisis struck in 2008, and he played a leading role in redesigning global financial regulation. In this eye-opening book, he sets the record straight about what really caused the crisis. It didn't happen because banks are too big to fail--our addiction to private debt is to blame.Between Debt and the Devil challenges the belief that we need credit growth to fuel economic growth, and that rising debt is okay as long as inflation remains low. In fact, most credit is not needed for economic growth--but it drives real estate booms and busts and leads to financial crisis and depression. Turner explains why public policy needs to manage the growth and allocation of credit creation, and why debt needs to be taxed as a form of economic pollution. Banks need far more capital, real estate lending must be restricted, and we need to tackle inequality and mitigate the relentless rise of real estate prices. Turner also debunks the big myth about fiat money--the erroneous notion that printing money will lead to harmful inflation. To escape the mess created by past policy errors, we sometimes need to monetize government debt and finance fiscal deficits with central-bank money.Between Debt and the Devil shows why we need to reject the assumptions that private credit is essential to growth and fiat money is inevitably dangerous. Each has its advantages, and each creates risks that public policy must consciously balance.
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Product details
Hardcover: 320 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press (October 20, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9780691169644
ISBN-13: 978-0691169644
ASIN: 0691169640
Product Dimensions:
6.2 x 1 x 9.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.1 out of 5 stars
25 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#854,905 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Between the Debt and the Devil takes a fresh approach to the issues facing our modern economy. Adair Turner became chairman of the FSA in the UK right at the beginning of the financial crisis and has direct experience with the crisis and radical perspectives on the solutions. The financial crisis is still impacting financial markets and the broad economy. Inequalities of income have gotten worse and credit to GDP has increased monotonically. Tackling these issues is extremely complex and the interrelationships make causality almost impossible to determine. Between Debt and the Devil, Adair Turner discusses his view on solutions to the current stagnation he sees us in and focuses in particular on the problems of excessive debt.Mr. Turner starts with the observation that debt has nonlinear benefits with respect to GDP generation and that in particular the initial benefits of aggregating savings so that large scale investment becomes feasible leads to saturated credit markets in which lending predominantly gets funneled into real estate. The author focuses on the changing benefits of credit intensity and makes the observation that excessive debt leads to financial fragility and therefore should be considered to have negative externalities. This view is fundamental to the prescriptions that follow. The author discusses concepts like bank capital requirements and the benefits of higher capital requirements but views the issue from the lens of credit creation rather than too big to fail. The author focuses on the problems of private credit creation and how there is not one equilibrium rate and therefore inflation targeting monetary policy can fail to focus sufficiently on financial fragility that is affecting asset rather than goods inflation. The book covers a lot of ground and looks at these issues including ideas from Minsky, Rajan and Friedman among others. The author brings the idea of nominal GDP targeting as a partial solution to the avoid the cycles of credit creation induced boom bust. The author also brings up the idea of debt forgiveness to reduce some global inequality issues alongside helicopter money and explicit monetization of government debt if there is excess capacity. None of these are trivial and have major repercussions to the modern economy.Between the Debt and the Devil focuses on the problems of high credit intensity economies when credit intensity is concentrated in real estate which is not productivity enhancing. There is no question that asset backed lending rather than investment based lending can be dangerous and Minsky has written extensively on the subject and the endogenous problems of money creation. Whether the more radical solutions proposed are necessary and or sufficient is not easy to analyze given the complex interrelationships involved. What can be said though is the tax benefits associated with debt issuance which were used as policy at a point when the credit intensity of the economy could easily support credit fuelled GDP growth should be different when the credit intensity of the economy reverses those initial benefits. Current tax policies and lending practices should incorporate macro prudential concerns as what might make sense for the individual lender could lead to adverse consequences at the economy wide level. This lesson is well taken from the book, others one should be more careful about believing wholeheartedly. But interesting read and some fresh ideas.
A slight bit technical at times, and probably nothing really groundbreaking, but still a very good summing up of the financial crises and its aftermath.Most importantly, Adair Turner was a heavy weight insider when the crisis hit. He is not another rebel from the outside with theories hacked in his own basement. If you have long been convinced that "the system is rigged" you will learn nothing new from this book, and you will probably dismiss it as way too conservative. If, however, you are looking for possible and likely policy change to prevent deep recession and, perhaps, the next big crash, Adair Turner is your man. He comes from the orthodox banking circles, although he has arguably placed himself somewhere near the exit lately. Chances are that someone powerful is still listening to him.As for the suggested remedies in the book, the most radical is probably money printing. Taboo with central banks and governments alike, Turner makes a strong case for its moderate implementation, even within the paradigm of "central bank independence". Yes, and with little or no inflation too.
Turner's main point, as I understand it, is that it is insufficient to focus merely on the unemployment rate, economic growth and inflation in order to monitor economic health. Private debt levels, and what use that debt is being put to, matter greatly. An interesting point of view, though political realities will likely prevent consideration of most of his proffered solutions.
Too many books have now been written on the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. Do we really need another? Most of the ground Adair Turner covers has already received exhaustive treatment in Martin Wolf’s The Shifts and the Shocks. Turner’s view is very familiar: the financial sector is too big, we have too much debt, and the banking system should be heavily regulated. There is little surprising or original here. For example, Turner has virtually nothing to say about the interaction between the financial sector and technological innovation. The genuinely innovative ideas in Robert Shiller’s Finance & the Good Society, get passing mention.Turner’s real strength is the directness of his argument, and the relative brevity of his writing - unlike many post-crisis tomes, this book is reasonably short - and much of the familiar ground can be skipped. He correctly frames the current global macroeconomic problem as how to generate growth without ever-rising debt - public or private. He also gets close to reaching the right answer: no well-organised free-market economy which can print money should ever have a persistent shortfall in demand. Turner recommends that central banks should “monetise budget deficitsâ€, which amounts to financing budget deficits by printing money, rather than issuing bonds. Perhaps what is most significant, is that a supposedly radical policy is being endorsed by someone at the heart of the establishment - after all, Turner was Chairman of Financial Services Authroity (FSA) and may well have been Governor of the Bank of England, had the Canadian rockstar not been available.The need for genuine innovation in macro policy making is a clear theme. Turner should be applauded for this. But disappointingly, he fails to consider the range of institutional options which are available - printing money can take many forms: framing and institutional structure is a critical factor. The serious proposals on the table include giving central banks the power to make cash payments to households, subject to their inflation target; steeply negative interest rates and abolishing cash; and cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities. Adair Turner only really considers the latter, and without much detail. The relative merits of these policies deserve far more extensive consideration.Eric Lonergan Author of Money (second revised edition)
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